Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Dameon Pierce has been on the field for 60.3% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Dameon Pierce's ground efficiency has diminished this season, averaging just 2.56 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 mark last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends rank as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.