Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The Houston Texans have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (161 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 5th-worst DT corps in football this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Our trusted projections expect Dameon Pierce to be much less involved in his offense's ground game in this week's game (38.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.3% in games he has played).
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.
Dameon Pierce has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

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