Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.83 seconds per play.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accumulate 16.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (60.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (77.3% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 93 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.