Dameon Pierce Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
Dameon Pierce has received 93.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has rushed for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 30th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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