Dameon Pierce Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.1% red zone run rate.
Dameon Pierce has received 91.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in the league (1.10 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans have incorporated motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.