Dameon Pierce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Dameon Pierce has been much less involved in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for just 46.6% of snaps vs 63.1% last year.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
Dameon Pierce's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 82.5% to 69.0%.
The Falcons safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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