Dameon Pierce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+139/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accumulate 3.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 8.7% this year, which puts him in the 76th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (73%) to running backs this year (73.0%).

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