Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Dameon Pierce has been much less involved in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for just 46.6% of snaps vs 63.1% last year.
Dameon Pierce has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).
Dameon Pierce's pass-game efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 6.01 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 4.51 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
Dameon Pierce's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 82.5% to 69.0%.
This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a paltry 15.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-best in football.
Since the start of last season, the strong Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a meager 5.8 YAC.

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