Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dameon Pierce has been much less involved in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for just 47.9% of snaps vs 63.1% last year.
Dameon Pierce's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, totaling 5.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 0.00 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Texans as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.
Dameon Pierce has totaled a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among running backs.
The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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