Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-145/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 8.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (84%) versus running backs since the start of last season (84.0%).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
Dameon Pierce has posted a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 11th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.