Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
When it comes to air yards, Dameon Pierce grades out in the lofty 77th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a striking 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Dameon Pierce's pass-game efficiency has been refined this year, totaling 6.78 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 4.50 rate last year.
Dameon Pierce's talent in generating extra yardage have improved this year, compiling 7.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 0.00 mark last year.
The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.97 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
Dameon Pierce's 27.7% Route Participation Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his pass game workload over last season's 40.6% rate.
Dameon Pierce's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 82.5% to 73.9%.