Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
When talking about air yards, Dameon Pierce ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a staggering 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Dameon Pierce's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this year reflects an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last year's 4.5 figure.
Dameon Pierce's 7.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a remarkable boost in his efficiency in space over last year's 0.0% mark.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Dameon Pierce's 28.1% Route Participation% this year reflects a remarkable reduction in his passing attack utilization over last year's 40.6% mark.
Dameon Pierce's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 82.5% to 73.7%.

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