Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accrue 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 8.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (41.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Dameon Pierce has compiled a puny -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 9th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.