Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Dameon Pierce has posted a paltry -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 3.57 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.
Dameon Pierce has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (74.3%) versus running backs this year (74.3%).
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.