Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to notch 3.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 9.1% this year, which puts him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching an impressive 90.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Dameon Pierce has accumulated a measly -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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