Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.