Dameon Pierce Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.3% run rate.
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to notch 17.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Dameon Pierce has been much less involved in his team's running game this year (63.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (77.3%).
The Texans offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's collection of DEs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

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