Dameon Pierce Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to notch 16.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has been given 69.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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