Dameon Pierce Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 15.9 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has received 59.1% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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