Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dalvin Cook has grinded out 68.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (93rd percentile).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 29th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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