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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-125/+100).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 73.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accrue 16.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.Dalvin Cook has been given 75.6% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.Dalvin Cook has been among the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.36 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 83rd percentile.The Detroit Lions defense has produced the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.37 yards-per-carry.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Dalvin Cook has rushed for many fewer yards per game (76.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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