Dalvin Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has earned 60.9% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for 0.71 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.6% red zone run rate.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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