Dalvin Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (66.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
Dalvin Cook has run for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Vikings have been the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 20.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.70 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.