Dalvin Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has been given 58.8% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.40 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.