Dalvin Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+109/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 44.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has earned 72.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has run for 0.46 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.76 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.