Dalvin Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 10:02 PM EST

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Dalvin Cook's 83.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a substantial boost in his receiving ability over last season's 76.8% mark.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
Dalvin Cook's 13.9% Route Participation% this season shows a meaningful regression in his pass attack utilization over last season's 53.0% figure.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Dalvin Cook's 1.1 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a noteable drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 2.3 figure.

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