Dalvin Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-171).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -158 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has run a route on 48.9% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 3.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.6%) to running backs this year (75.6%).
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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