Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has compiled a measly -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 11th percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in just 76.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 26.0) to RBs since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties project as the 10th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.