Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-140/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Dalvin Cook has run a route on 53.0% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has accrued a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 9th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Dalvin Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs, completing just 76.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, allowing 5.23 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.