Dalvin Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accumulate 18.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has garnered 71.7% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.1% run rate.
The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.