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Dalvin Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-102/-130).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 17.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.Dalvin Cook has been given 76.4% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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