Dalvin Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to earn 17.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Dalvin Cook has been given 73.9% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.