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Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-139).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +102.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 59.1% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.The Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.Dalton Schultz's receiving skills have declined this year, averaging just 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 3.9 last year.Dalton Schultz's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 70.0% to 56.7%.This year, the daunting Detroit Lions defense has conceded a puny 65.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's unit has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.
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