Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The projections expect Dalton Schultz to garner 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz has been among the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a stellar 3.4 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
Dalton Schultz's 33.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 39.7.
With a poor 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (24th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Saints defense has surrendered a meager 56.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the smallest rate in football.