Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The projections expect Dalton Schultz to garner 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
Dalton Schultz's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 39.7.
Dalton Schultz's receiving performance has tailed off this season, notching a measly 2.5 adjusted receptions vs 3.7 last season.
With a weak 63.7% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz rates among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to TEs.

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