Dalton Schultz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-470).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dalton Schultz has accumulated a colossal 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Schultz's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 88th percentile for TEs.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Dalton Schultz's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 76.3% to 70.6%.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.