Dalton Schultz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.9% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Schultz has posted a colossal 47.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz's 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 34.2.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Dalton Schultz's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.9% to 66.2%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.