Dalton Schultz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-274).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +229 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Dalton Schultz has accumulated a monstrous 36.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz's 37.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 89th percentile for TEs.
Dalton Schultz grades out in the 87th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to be a less important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.5% in games he has played).
Dalton Schultz's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.9% to 73.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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