Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Buffalo Bills · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets.
Dalton Kincaid's 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 35.1.
The Seahawks pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (83.7%) to TEs this year (83.7%).

Favors Under

The Bills are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 52.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The fewest plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 51.4 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.

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