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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 5.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Dalton Kincaid's 43.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 35.1.

Since the start of last season, the poor Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see only 121.2 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

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