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Dalton Kincaid
NFL · Player Props
Dalton Kincaid
TE · Buffalo Bills
Receptions
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 19, 2024 Updated Jan 13, 2025 12:06 AM UTC
NFL Props Dalton Kincaid Receptions

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -149.

Favors Over
  • The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year.
  • In this game, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the model to land in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.6 targets.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 35.7.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Favors Under
  • An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a big 7.5-point favorite this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 54.9 per game on average).
  • Dalton Kincaid's 3.4 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.6 rate.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 61.8% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.6% rate.
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