Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 19, 2024

Updated Jan 13, 2025 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year.
In this game, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the model to land in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.6 targets.
Dalton Kincaid's 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 35.7.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a big 7.5-point favorite this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 54.9 per game on average).
Dalton Kincaid's 3.4 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.6 rate.
Dalton Kincaid's 61.8% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.6% rate.

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