Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
In this contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 87th percentile among TEs with 5.5 targets.
Dalton Kincaid's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 35.1.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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