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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+123/-159).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -159.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Bills as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid's 44.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 35.1.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to run just 61.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 53.8 per game on average).

Dalton Kincaid's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a substantial decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 4.6 mark.

Dalton Kincaid's 61.8% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a significant decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 81.6% rate.

This year, the formidable Detroit Lions defense has yielded a paltry 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

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