My Account Log Out

reorder

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.3% pass rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

The model projects Dalton Kincaid to garner 7.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 35.1.

The Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).

Dalton Kincaid's 3.6 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a material drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 4.6 mark.

Dalton Kincaid's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 81.6% to 64.0%.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™