Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 6.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
While Dalton Kincaid has been responsible for 13.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's passing attack in this contest at 19.0%.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (65%) versus TEs this year (65.0%).

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