Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
With an elite 69.6% Route% (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league.
In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Dalton Kincaid has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.2%) to tight ends this year (63.2%).

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