Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Dalton Kincaid has run a route on 67.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to earn 4.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a terrific 91.8% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

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