Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to garner 8.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
While Dalton Kincaid has earned 16.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in Buffalo's offense in this contest at 10.5%.
When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

In terms of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the most sluggish in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties project as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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