Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
Dalton Kincaid has run a route on 73.4% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 94th percentile among TEs with 7.0 targets.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
With an excellent 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the leading pass-game TEs in the league.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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