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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 5.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

After accruing 36.0 air yards per game last season, Dalton Kincaid has gotten better this season, currently averaging 48.0 per game.

Dalton Kincaid's 45.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 35.1.

The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

With an excellent 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the best TEs in the pass game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 10-point advantage, the Bills are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 51.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Bills this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

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